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    Global economy

    This Month

    The US is in a state of near panic about the green-industry tidal wave coming out of China.

    US-China trade war choices for Chalmers’ green budget

    The new incentives for critical minerals and green hydrogen are about more than industry policy. They will play out in a global contest over rival political systems.

    • Richard McGregor
    The US is now the sole engine of economic growth again.

    Why the world won’t respond to shocks as it did before

    The world economy is fragmenting, with countries going in different directions. They will not react to frequent violent changes in the same ways.

    • Mohamed El-Erian
    The Bank of England is hoping for a rosier economic picture.

    Bank of England boss ‘optimistic’ interest rate cuts are coming

    The BoE left its benchmark unchanged at 5.25 per cent, but the UK economy is looking ripe for a rate cut.

    • Updated
    • Hans van Leeuwen
    A worker counts money at a grocery store in Buenos Aires.

    Argentina launches 10,000-peso notes, worth $17, as inflation bites

    The new note, worth five times more than the previous largest note, was introduced as Argentina’s annual inflation rate reached 287 per cent in March.

    • Ciara Nugent
    Stanley Druckenmiller said the Biden administration was in danger of crowding out innovation.

    Biden fights back after Druckenmiller’s reckless spending lambast

    Campaigning in a key state, Joe Biden defended his government’s massive government industry subsidies from critics including the billionaire investor.

    • Updated
    • Matthew Cranston
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    US economy

    OECD upgrades global growth outlook as US outperforms

    A faster-than-expected fall in inflation has set the stage for central banks to begin rate cuts in the second half of the year, boosting consumers’ incomes, according to the OECD.

    • Leigh Thomas
    Central banks are traditionally viewed as regulation-oriented market fixers that should focus only on guaranteeing financial stability.

    What will central banks do in a cashless world?

    The development puts new pressure on such institutions to reimagine their role and become more innovative.

    • Mariana Mazzucato and David Eaves
    Germany’s economy is recovering, but its industrial base is yet to start firing on all cylinders.

    European economy rebounds, but June rate cut still on the cards

    The bounceback has not triggered inflation, creating space for the European Central Bank to start easing the squeeze before the US Federal Reserve.

    • Hans van Leeuwen

    April

    The US economy slowed in the first quarter.

    US data shows economy in unexpected slowdown

    Growth in the world’s biggest economy was slower than expected, while an acceleration in inflation reinforced expectations rates won’t be cut before September.

    • Lucia Mutikani
    Wall Street finished flat to open its week.

    America’s ‘supercharged’ economy can’t last

    One overlooked reason for US resilience is a tonne of stimulus still coursing through the economy.

    • Ruchir Sharma
    Treasurer Jim Chalmers has told fellow treasurers that five global trends are buffeting the finances of all nations.

    Chalmers warns of ‘fraught and fragile’ outlook

    Returning from Washington, the treasurer warned of a precarious global outlook, citing slower growth forecasts for China, Britain and Japan in the May budget.

    • Ronald Mizen
    Iranian worshippers chant slogans during an anti-Israeli gathering after Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran.

    Markets are a frog in boiling water on Iran-Israel

    The latest round of Iran-Israel hostilities has crossed many lines and durably raised the geopolitical temperature in the region. Yet markets seem keen to brush this aside.

    • Mohamed El-Erian
    Narendra Modi

    Why India’s confidence is growing

    Narendra Modi’s reign as prime minister is producing a less liberal but more assured nation that is predicated on the idea of Hindu supremacy.

    • Ravi Agrawal

    A double-dip recession in the land of the long white cloud

    Recent reports have also revealed sluggish consumer spending, a pronounced slide in manufacturing, and bleak business confidence in New Zealand.

    • Daniel Moss
    The Perth Mint has found itself in hot water on the back of a Four Corners report.

    Who is the ‘massive player with deep pockets’ behind gold’s surge?

    A powerful force is stalking the world’s gold market and it is operating in the shadows. Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost.

    • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
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    China’s economy performed better than expected in the first half, but most investors appeared to take the headline GDP surprise with a pinch of salt.

    China GDP grows faster than expected on fresh stimulus

    The Chinese government is drawing on infrastructure work - a well-used playbook - to help lift the economy, as consumers remain wary of spending and businesses lack confidence to expand.

    • Updated
    • Joe Cash and Kevin Yao
    Jamie Dimon says the there are many risks to the global economy.

    Dimon warns of ‘unsettling’ pressures on global markets

    The CEO of JPMorgan sees a cascade of pressures including war, rising geopolitical tensions and inflation weighing over markets.

    • Updated
    • Rob Copeland

    Markets cut rate cut bets as US inflation rises to 3.5pc

    Stubborn inflation driven by fuel and rent has raised concerns of a resurgence in consumer prices and slashed expectations the Fed Reserve will start cutting rates in June.

    • Updated
    • Matthew Cranston
    Women see economics through a different lens to men.

    Why women don’t stick with economics

    Economic models of anything are founded on the assumption of Homo economicus. No sensible woman looks at this model and recognises herself.

    • Yanis Varoufakis
    Few countries now have a birth rate above the replacement level of 2.1 children a couple, the level needed to keep a population stable.

    Population decline will destroy the West as we know it

    By 2100, the number of people worldwide will have peaked. The value of assets will drop and the incomes they generate will fall.

    • Dr Stephen Davies