Yesterday
Mortgage relief in sight after traders scrap rate rise bets
A surprise pickup in the unemployment rate has bolstered bets that the next move from the Reserve Bank may be lower. Cooling US inflation data overnight also helped, sending the Aussie dollar to a four-month high.
- Cecile Lefort
This Month
Rate rise still priced in despite Chalmers’ ‘optimistic’ forecasts
Bond markets are continuing to bet that the RBA will have to lift rates this year, despite new government forecasts predicting inflation will fall faster than the central bank expects.
- Updated
- Alex Gluyas
- Opinion
- Bonds
Forget the hawks, the RBA’s next rate move will be lower
In my over 20 years in financial markets, I’ve never seen such a wide dispersion of views on interest rates as we currently have in Australia – we are at a pivotal moment in monetary policy.
- Angus Coote
Investors are set to pile into Australia’s first green bond
European fund managers are backing the federal government’s plans to shed its reputation as a coal polluter, with its $7 billion bond looking well oversubscribed.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Some fundies unconvinced the RBA is done with rate increases
Fortlake Asset Management’s Christian Baylis has joined a small number of economists who expect rates to rise, not fall. He says inflation isn’t under control.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders trim rate rise bets on patient RBA
The markets are now pricing in just a 15 chance the cash rate will rise again this year after the Reserve Bank stood pat on Tuesday.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
RBA’s radio silence fuels extreme rate rise bets
Traders’ bet that the RBA will lift the cash rate is fuelled by the central bank’s lack of communications since March as it undergoes sweeping reporting changes.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Everyone calm down, inflation is not taking off again
The Reserve Bank should be alert to stubborn price pressures, but not alarmed.
- Updated
- Tim Hext
Economists call for tighter immigration to help RBA’s inflation war
Economists from some of the largest banks are urging the government to restrict migrant visas to help ease the housing crisis that is pushing rents and prices of goods higher.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Blackstone taps vast source of cash in $1.5trn credit push
Blackstone has been eagerly driving the expansion of the booming multi-trillion dollar private-debt markets. And it’s paying off.
- Dawn Lim and Silas Brown
Markets cheer after Fed chief rules out rate increases
Traders have ramped up US rate cut bets this year after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, but the prospect of higher rates in Australia this year is still on the cards.
- Cecile Lefort
Fed, RBA to talk tough on inflation and rates
The central banks are expected to take harsher tone on tackling inflation at their upcoming policy meetings, further tempering rate cut hopes that have underpinned equities this year.
- Cecile Lefort
April
CBA tips one rate cut this year as retail sales ease fears of a rise
Last week’s hot inflation data reignited the prospect of further rate increases, but Tuesday’s weak retail sales numbers have traders walking back those expectations.
- Cecile Lefort and Joshua Peach
Fed rate cut debate shifts from when toward if on sticky inflation
US policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high this week, so much of the focus will be on any pivot from the Fed chairman.
- Steve Matthews
RBA’s next move will still be a rate cut, say investors
Market pundits argue that interest rates are still going down, not up, because inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than many had expected.
- Cecile Lefort
Market bets the RBA will raise rates by August
Traders are ascribing a more than 50 per cent chance the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate as early as in August to stamp out inflation.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders see zero chance of RBA rate relief
The bond market has completely removed any chance of an easing in 2024, making Australia the only major economy where rates could rise.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders speculate RBA’s next move could be up
The Australian dollar jumped and bonds sold off after inflation beat forecasts, prompting traders to abandon almost every basis point of easing in this year’s cash rate profile.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
‘Can’t rule out a further rate hike’: economists
Economists point to signs the economy is picking up, fuelling speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could lift the cash rate one more time.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Sharemarket doesn’t need rate cuts for life support
Australia’s jobless rate rose less than expected as the labour force remains tight, reinforcing the case for the Reserve Bank to stay on hold.
- Cecile Lefort and Ben Potter
