Opinion
New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world
While markets are rejoicing about the prospect of lower interest rates next year, stagflation across the ditch points to very different possibilities.
Christopher JoyeColumnistThe truth is that nobody knows what is going to happen in 2024. This is underscored by the wild divergences between the forecasts implied by asset prices and the central bank projections that investors are betting against.
We do nonetheless know a few things. First, inflation data around the world continues to surprise most central banks with its strength – especially the more persistent demand-side “services” inflation (as opposed to supply-side “goods” prices), which is being fuelled by escalating wage costs that reflect very tight labour markets.
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